Change effects Asian countries most
Poor people and rural women from developing nations in Asia including India will be among those most affected by
climate Change which poses fundamental threats to the region's food and energy security, according to studies funded by the Asian Development Bank.
The climate change is also expected to lead to increased migration of people within national boundaries, mainly into mega cities.
Attributing to three studies on agriculture, energy and migration, the ADB in a statement today said the impacts of rising
temperatures in Asia would fall disproportionately on the region's poor, and rural women from developing countries would be among the most affected groups.
The economy of developing countries like India are mostly affected by climate change, because they are not having enough and
sound technologies or scientific development to deal with this impact. The ecological and socioeconomic systems of India are
already facing pressures from rapid population, industrialization and economic development.
The impact of climate change in various field of Indian Economy are:.
Agriculture and Food
Over half of Asia's total population lives below the $2 per day poverty line and these people are more depend on rain-fed agriculture and live in settlements that are highly exposed to
climate variability and change. Noting that about 2.2 billion Asians rely on agriculture for their livelihoods, the statement said the sector is now threatened by falling crop yields caused by floods, droughts, erratic rainfall and other climate change impacts.
Climate change can adversely impact the production of crops like wheat, rice and pulses in India and the government needs to educate farmers in this regard, Nobel Laureate and
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Chairman, R K Pachauri, said.
Agriculture production is direct dependence on climate change and weather, is one of the widely studied sector in the context of climate change. The possible changes in temperature, precipitation and
CO2 concentration are expected to significant impact on crop growth. So that overall impact of climate change on worldwide food production is considered to be low to moderate with successful
adaptation and adequate irrigation, global agricultural production could be increased due to the doubling of CO2 fertilization effect.
There are two ways to climate change can affect the food production system. One is direct and another is indirect. In direct changes through temperature, water balance and atmospheric
composition as well as extreme weather events and indirectly changes through in the distribution,
frequently and severity of pest and disease outbreaks, incidence of fire and in soil properties. These direct and indirect effects on
agricultural system will not only responding to climate change but through fluctuating yield have a negative impact on production and distribution.
The social-economic impacts associated with the above physical impact on crops will be influenced by the
interaction between producer and consumer behavior as well as the possible adaptation that farmers could undertake in response to climate change.
Agricultural and allied activities constitute the single largest component of Indiaís economy. It is
contributing 22% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the year 2003-2004. Indianís agricultural activity continues with fully dependence of the weather. A few studies on the impact on agriculture have been reported for India in the IPCC Third Assessment Report
(IPCC 2000). Saseendran et al., have reported decrease in rice yields by 3% to 10% under a scenario of 1.50C rise in temperature and a 2 mm day-1
increase in precipitation. Most of the recent studies found that possible adverse effect on developing countries agricultural sector, but all of them focus on physical impact alone.
To study the micro level implications of vulnerability, detailed case studies are being conducted in India. The case studiers
focus on how economic factors within the context of domestic policies have either enhanced or reduced the capacity of farmers to cope with climate change. The pilot case study was
undertaken in district Jhalawar of Rajasthan. Three other case studies are to be conducted over in 2003- 2004.
Climate is an important determinant of the geographical distribution, composition and productivity of forests. Forest area would be affected by climate
depends on various factors like species and age of trees, possibilities for forests to migrate, and quality of forest management (Suthir Sharma and K.S.Kavikumar 1998).
Climate change over forestry turn to have profound implications for traditional livelihood, industry, biodiversity, soil and water resources and these leads to changes in agricultural
productivity. Most of the estimates of the forestry sector have been carried out without considering the influence of land use changes in the future.
Forests have a large capacity to stock the sequester carbon. Increasing level of carbon loads to increase the Net Primary Productivity of forests.
So that Net Primary Productivity and Carbon have a direct relationship. But some forests are also likely to disappear due to higher temperature and an increase in the number of pests and pathogens.
But the how is the net effect from these phenomena on the level of carbon is not yet found clear from existing research. Climate will have the greatest
impact on boreal forests. But temperature first will be affected to a lesser extent and tropical forests will be least affected under climate change condition
(Catrinus J. Jepma and Mohan Munasinghe, 1998).
Fankhauser (1995) has estimated the annual forestry losses to be US$1.8 billion in the OECD and US$2 billion
for the world as a whole due to the climate change. There were few studies have estimated economic impacts, and even the physical impacts are restricted to estimates the loss in wood supply.
Ravindranath N H AND Sukumar R (1998) studied the impacts of climate change scenario on tropical forests in India. Their study dealt with green house gas forcing and incorporating
the effects of sulphate aerosols. First scenario associated with increased temperature and rainfall, could result in increased productivity. Second scenario involved
in increased temperature and a decreased precipitation, could have adverse effect on forests.
Aquatic ecosystems include lakes and streams, non-tidal wetlands, coastal environs, and oceans.
Temperature increases caused by climate change may due to the diversity and geographical distribution of species, the productivity of organism in ecosystem and the mixing priorities of lakes.
Increase in air temperature of -- can shift the geographic range of species by about 150 km.
Most favourable effects of warming will be felt at high latitude, where biological productivity and species diversity are likely to increase. Most significant negative effect will be experience by cold or cool water species in low latitudes
where extinction is likely to increase and biodiversity will decline.
Climate change will affect biological, biogeochemical and hydrological functions of wetlands. An increasing our temperature could affect the wetland by thawing permafrost, which is crucial for maintaining the water table in ecosystem.
Economically and ecologically important coastal ecosystems are significantly damaged from climate change effects, such as sea level rise, changes in atmospheric temperature and variation in the rainfall patterns. And many valuable economic
and ecological functions including tourism, fisheries, storm and floodwater protection and biodiversity would be threatened by climate change.
The greatest impacts of climate change on many aquatic ecosystems would be the exacerbation of already existing stresses resulting from human activity. Over the past few decades costal wetlands, saltwater marshes, and mangrove systems have disappeared at a rate of 0.5 to 1.5% per year in some regions. Temperature changes and sea level rise will accelerate these trends.
Impact estimation of water resources is complex because of the interaction of various climate as well as non-climate factors. Hydrological models show that water availability could vary widely among nations and within nations. Experts
also not able to project whether human water supply system will advance sufficiently to counteract the anticipated negative impact of climate change and increased demand. Some of the factors such as vegetation,
projected water demand, population complicate to assess the impact of climate
change on water resources. However, on the basis of general circulation models have significant impact on regional water supplies. So far these model have capable to providing only larger scale geographical projections.
The impact of climate change on water resources will affect human well-being to various digress,
depending on how country-specific water management methods can accommodate such change.
Climate change and waters treaty
Waters Treaty and demands international intervention against India to increase its share of water flow.
India shares the Indus, which is largely snow-fed, with Pakistan, the Ganges with Bangladesh and the
River with Bangladesh and China. The pressures on these great rivers from global warming will come on top of what we already
see in the drying of seasonal tributaries and mountain springs. Existing agreements on water sharing could be threatened as river flows change and further
tensions could arise if upstream states decide to divert supplies to cope with changing conditions. Fears about China diverting Brahmaputra
river waters have already surfaced.
As per the energy report, Asia's access to affordable energy is facing rising threat due to demand-supply gaps, high reliance on traditional biomass fuels, and the high-energy intensity of the region's economies, among others.The
region's vast renewable energy potential could help in responding to this scenario, provided "policy and finance measures quickly scale-up proven technologies for the poor, including small hydro and solar power".
As the quality of life strongly depends on climate, climate change would affect human amenity. Though warm climate is generally preferred over cooler climate, if the warming were beyond optimal temperature, it would have adverse effects.
The vulnerability of human health is depends on function of causative factors. But the causative factors depend on nutrition status, population health, and health infrastructure.
These factors are relatively poor in the developing countries, so that health impacts due to climate change in these countries are expected to be more adverse.
One of the major direct health impacts of climate change would be an increase in heart-related deaths and illness (primarily from cardio respiratory failure).
Studies have been shown that heart-related deaths could increase because of climate change, at the same time deaths due to cold weather conditions would decrease as a result of global warming.
The indirect effect of climate change would expansion of the area under the influence of the malaria mosquito, these leads to increased global population exposed to malaria from current 45% to
60% by the latter half of the next century. However actual increase in the number of people with malaria-estimated to be between 50 and 80 million. Matsuoka and Kai (1995) have concluded that population exposed to risk of
malaria would increase by about 30% in the Asia-Pacific region under a 2 x CO2 climate.
Increase the heart related diseases (asthma, allergic disorders, and cardio respiratory) would probably also occur due to climate-induced changes. Based on studies in US,
Cline (1992) and Fankhause (1995) have estimated that climate change would increase the mortality by about 27-40 persons per million populations. Regarding the human loss in monetary terms is controversial. So far there has been no consensus in this
regard (IPPC 1996). Africa is expected to be increasingly vulnerable due to climate change because most of the countries in African continent are poor and low level of health standard.
The climate change is
lead to migration
The climate change is also expected to lead to increased
migration of people within national boundaries, mainly into mega cities. The study found that climate change-induced threats to
Asia's agriculture and energy would contribute significantly to migration within national boundaries.