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 Inflation rate in India 2015

India's inflation rate for September at (-) 4.54 percent

New Delhi October 15, 2015 (IANS): India's annual wholesale inflation for September firmed up slightly at (-) 4.54 percent from (-)4.95 percent for the previous month, official data released on Wednesday showed.

The annual inflation rate, based on the official wholesale price index (WPI), was ruling at 2.38 percent in September, last year.  The slight firmness was attributed to rising prices of onions, pulses, milk, egg, meat and fish, which have continued to hit household budgets.

The data furnished by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, revealed a revised rate of the headline inflation for July. The WPI inflation was revised lower to (-) 4.00 percent from (-) 4.05 percent which was reported on August 14, this year.

For the last six months, the revised WPI data has been (-)0.95 percent in January, (-)2.06 percent in February to (-)2.33 percent in March to (-)2.43 percent in April, (-)2.20 percent in May, (-)2.13 percent in June and (-)4.00 percent in July.

The data revealed that among the three major sub-indices of the WPI, the inflation rate for primary articles and manufactured products inched up by 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.The index for fuels and power, meanwhile, slipped by 1.7 percent.

The final rate of inflation for the three sub-indices for last month stood at primary articles (-)2.09 percent, manufactured products (-)1.73 percent and fuel and power (-)17.71 percent.

However, food inflation in the month under review edged up by 0.69 percent from a decline of 1.13 percent recorded in August and 3.68 percent in the corresponding month of last year.

During the month under review, some commodities of mass consumption continued to upset household budgets and notable among them was onion, whose price was higher by as much as 113.70 percent over the like month of the previous year. Pulses were dearer by 38.56 percent.

Other protein-rich food items such as milk, eggs, meat and fish recorded modest price increases. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, milk was costly by 2.16 percent while eggs, meat and fish prices rose by 2.02 percent.

Inflation falls to -4.05 pc in July

August 15, 2015: The wholesale price inflation (WPI) fell to a historic low of -4.05 per cent in July, compared to -2.4 per cent in June.

This marks the ninth straight month of contraction in wholesale prices, and follows consumer price index (CPI) inflation slowing to 3.8 per cent in July from 5.4 per cent in June. The contraction in WPI can be attributed largely to falling food and commodity prices.

Primary articles inflation contracted further in July, coming in at -3.7 per cent compared to -0.8 per cent in June, marking the third consecutive month of contraction.

Within primary articles, food articles inflation contracted to -1.16 per cent compared to 2.2 per cent in June. Vegetable prices in particular saw a sharp contraction, coming in at -24.5 per cent in July as against -7.1 per cent in June. Food inflation as measured in the CPI also slowed in July, from 5.5 per cent in June to 2.15 per cent in July.

Manufactured products inflation, with a weightage of 65 per cent in the WPI, fell to -1.5 per cent in July from -0.8 per cent in June. This comes on top of the manufacturing component of the Index of Industrial Production growing 4.6 per cent in June, the latest release.

Inflation in the fuel and power group continued its sharp contraction, coming in at -12.8 per cent in July compared to -10 per cent in June.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan had said, following the monetary policy announcement on August 4, that the central bank may consider a rate cut outside of the policy cycle if the situation demands it. The next policy review meeting is scheduled on September 29. - Agencies

Wholesale inflation at (-)2.4% in June

NEW DELHI, July 15, 2015: Deflationary trends continued for the eighth month in a row in June with the wholesale price- inflation slipping to (-)2.4 per cent, largely due to cheaper vegetable and fuel prices.

The overall Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was (-)2.36 per cent in May, the government data showed today. It has been in the negative zone since November 2014. A year ago in June 2014, inflation was 5.66 per cent.

The data come a day after the retail inflation for the same month rose to an 8-month high of 5.4 per cent. Experts said the conflicting data would make it difficult to predict the next course of action for RBI, which has cut its rates three times so far this year.

RBI mostly tracks the consumer price inflation for its monetary policy decision, and its next review is due on August 4. The central bank has said it would watch out for the data, including inflation, and the monsoon progress before any change in its policy rates.

Last month, rate of price rise for food items, especially wheat, fruits and milk eased at the wholesale level. Overall wholesale inflation in food category declined to 2.88 per cent compared with 3.80 per cent in May.

However, vegetable prices declined 7.07 per cent, with potato prices slumping 52.40 per cent. However, pulses got dearer by 33.67 per cent as against 22.84 per cent in the previous month.

Inflation in fuel and power category stood at (-)10.3 per cent in June. The manufactured products index inflation was (-)0.77 per cent as against (-)0.64 per cent last month. Prices eased for cement, non-metallic mineral products and transport equipment and parts. Source: PTI

Wholesale inflation at (-)2.36% in May

New Delhi, June 16, 2015: Wholesale price inflation stayed in the negative zone for the seven consecutive month in May, at -2.36%, compared with -2.65% in April, when it had dropped to its lowest level in the current inflation series, with price rise in food items slowing down further despite persistent worries about a monsoon failure this year.

The data, released on Monday, came on the back of a marginal uptick in retail inflation to 5.01% in May from a four-month low of 4.87% in the previous month and industrial production growth hitting 4.1% in April from 2.5% in the previous month.

Despite the drop in wholesale price food inflation to 3.80% in May, compared with 5.73% in the previous month, analysts sought to wait until August to gauge the actual underlying price pressure in food items once the conducive base effect wanes. Although food inflation eased in both the wholesale price index (WPI) and consumer price index (CPI) in May from the previous month, partly aided by a commodity crash globally, it came off favourable bases (food inflation was 9.63% in WPI and 8.89% in CPI in May 2014).

Core WPI inflation slowed down for the seventh straight month to -0.6% in May from -0.4% in the previous month, suggesting a rebound in demand is still far away. It had hit the negative territory in March after a gap of 65 months, although analysts believe the RBI may not read too much into it. -PTI



Inflation dips to record (-)2.65% in April

New Delhi, May 14, 2015: Deflationary pressure continued for the sixth month in a row with inflation dropping to a new low of (-)2.65 percent in April, mainly on account of decline in prices of fuel and manufactured items even as food prices increased. 

The deflationary trend has bolstered the case for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank, as retail inflation has also eased and industrial production is down, experts said. Industrial output had slowed to 5-month low of 2.1% in March.

Inflation was (-)2.33 percent in March, (-)2.17 percent in February, (-)0.95 percent in January, (-)0.50 % in December and (-) 0.17 % in November.

In April this year, the manufactured products segment witnessed deflation for the second consecutive month as prices dropped to a low of (-)0.52 %.

Inflation in food articles category stood at 5.73 percent, from 6.31 percent in March. For fuel and power, it was (-)13.03 percent in April. Potato prices saw the steepest fall at (-)41.14 percent in April. For vegetables, the decline was (-)1.32 percent.

However, inflation in pulses was at 15.38 per cent, and for egg, meat and fish at 4.01 percent during the month. The Consumer Price Index based inflation data, released earlier this week, showed retail inflation fell to a 4-month low of 4.87 percent in April on account of easing food prices. - PTI

WPI inflation fell to -2.06 percent in February

March 17,2015: According to the government data, the WPI inflation fell to -2.06 percent in February from -0.39 percent a month ago. The point not to be missed is that there isn’t any encouraging trend when it comes to food price inflation, which still stay high with a 7.74 percent growth, largely same as the previous month.

The steeper-than-expected fall in wholesale price index (WPI) inflation for February, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, is largely on account of a fall in fuel prices and decline in manufactured products inflation in the face of weak consumer demand.

The trend in food inflation, a major contributor to the persistently high retail inflation, will have significant say in charting the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy stance in the approaching months. Even the consumer price index (CPI) inflation, which is the key price indicator for the central bank, has been inching up in the recent months with a primary contributor to the rise being the food prices.

In February, the CPI rose to 5.37 percent from 5.19 percent in January, mainly due to higher food prices. Food and beverages constitute about 46 percent of the retail inflation basket.

As per the data, rate of inflation in LPG, petrol and high speed diesel has been on a decline over the last six months. LPG inflation has declined steadily from 2.83 percent in September 2014 to -8.86 percent in February; petrol from -9.42 percent to 21.35 percent in February and high speed diesel from 10.10 percent to -16.62 percent. Such a sharp fall is duly attributed to the softening of crude prices internationally, which has evidently translated to domestic prices.

Persistently high food prices presumably rule out a rate cut by Raghuram Rajan in the 7 April monetary policy, after two surprise cuts amounting to 50 basis points (bps) so far this year. One bps is one hundredth of a percentage point. Source: firstpost.com

Inflation at 5 year low of (-) 0.39% in January

New Delhi , February 17, 2015: Wholesale inflation turned negative for the second time in three months as fall in petroleum and food prices dragged it to a five-and-a-half year low of (-) 0.39% in January, raising hopes of a rate cut by RBI.

Reflecting significant improvement in the price situation, the inflation for the second time in three months remained in the negative territory in January.

Inflation measured on wholesale price index (WPI) was at 0.11% in December. The data for November was revised downwards to a negative (-) 0.17%, from the provisional estimate of zero.

Although the prices of certain protein rich items and wheat declined during the month, the overall food inflation was at a six month high of 8%, as per the government data released on Monday.

The last time the inflation had touched this low level was in June 2009 when it was at (-)0.4%.

Wholesale inflation rises to 0.11% in December

New Delhi, January 15, 2015 : The wholesale price index (WPI) -based inflation rose marginally to 0.11% in December from 0% the previous month, mainly on account of anincrease in prices of food items, particularly fruits.

However, inflation in manufactured products, which have the highest weight on WPI (almost 65%), declined on low demand and global cues. Fuel prices also declined as global crude oil rates fell, official data showed on Wednesday.

Overall, inflation remained moderate, even if marginally higher than November, raising hopes the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might lower the policy rate next month or after presentation of the Budget, to spur economic growth. Though RBI now tracks retail inflation more than wholesale, WPI-based inflation is a lead indicator for even retail price inflation.

During the month, the rate of retail inflation also increased a little —to five% from an all-time low of almost 4.4% in November.

In the September quarter of the current financial year, the rate of India’s economic growth declined to 5.3%, compared with 5.7% the previous quarter. And, official data released so far have given little hope of a resurgence anytime soon. The country’s industrial production, for example, contracted 4.2% in October and rose 3.8% in November.

  

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